Why it will be tough for Biden to defeat Trump
President Joe Biden is running for re-election in 2024, but he faces a tough challenge from his predecessor, Donald Trump, who is seeking to reclaim the White House after losing in 2020.
The latest polls show Trump leading Biden nationally by a narrow margin, and ahead in enough battleground states to win the Electoral College.
This is a stark contrast to 2020, when Biden was favored over Trump throughout the campaign and won by more than 7 million votes.Joe Biden's weakness stems from several factors, such as the high inflation, the controversial bills he pushed through Congress, and the foreign policy crises he faced in Afghanistan, Ukraine and the Middle East.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual inflation rate in January 2024 was 6.8%, the highest since 1982. Many Americans are feeling the pinch of rising prices for food, gas, housing and other goods and services. Biden has blamed the inflation on the pandemic and the supply chain disruptions, but Trump has accused him of mismanaging the economy and spending too much on his social and environmental agenda.
The Mr President has also faced criticism for his legislative priorities, which have divided the country and the Congress. His $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief plan, his $2 trillion infrastructure proposal, and his $1.75 trillion social spending and climate bill have all passed with little or no Republican support, and have sparked backlash from conservatives and moderates who see them as wasteful, radical and inflationary.
Donald Trump has however vowed to repeal or revise these bills if he returns to power, and has promised to lower taxes, cut regulations and boost energy production.
On the foreign policy front, Biden has struggled to deal with the aftermath of his decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan, which led to the collapse of the Afghan government and the takeover by the Taliban.
The chaotic evacuation of Americans and allies from Kabul in August 2023 was widely seen as a humiliation and a failure, and has damaged Biden's credibility as a leader.
Trump has slammed Biden for abandoning Afghanistan and endangering national security, and has claimed that he would have handled the situation differently and more effectively.
The American president has also faced challenges from other adversaries, such as Russia, China and Iran, who have tested his resolve and his diplomacy.
In January 2024, Russia invaded Ukraine, despite Biden's warnings and sanctions, and sparked a major crisis in Europe. China has continued to assert its dominance in the Indo-Pacific region, and has threatened Taiwan with military action.
Iran has resumed its nuclear program, and has attacked US interests and allies in the Middle East. Trump has accused Biden of being weak and indecisive, and has pledged to restore America's strength and respect on the world stage.
Biden's supporters argue that he has done a lot of good for the country, such as expanding health care, fighting climate change, restoring democracy and alliances, and ending the pandemic.
They also point out that Trump is facing multiple legal troubles, including a federal indictment for his role in inciting the January 6th insurrection at the Capitol, and three other criminal cases in New York and Georgia.
Biden's fans also say that Trump is unfit and dangerous, and that he would undermine the rule of law and the Constitution if he gets another chance.
However, Trump's loyal base remains energized and mobilized, and he has retained his grip on the Republican Party, which has largely embraced his false claims of election fraud and his populist agenda.
He has also attracted some new voters, especially among Hispanics and working-class whites, who like his economic and cultural message. The former president has raised a record amount of money for his campaign, and has dominated the media and social media with his rallies and statements.
The election is still eight months away, and a lot can change between now and then.
But the current state of the race suggests that Biden faces an uphill battle against Trump, and that the outcome will depend on a few key factors, such as the economy, the public opinion, the turnout, and the performance of third-party candidates.
The stakes are high, and the margin of error is low, for both candidates and the country.
